11 Apr 04

Finally, a happy trigger lock story:

A bar owner in Indiana and three of his customers beat a would-be robber so badly last Wednesday that the shotgun-wielding suspect required nineteen staples to close the wounds to his head.

Donald Willis, 46, entered the bar holding a shotgun. He ordered the owner and three customers to get on the floor. Not impressed, the bar's owners charged Willis, knocking him to the floor. A customer grabbed the shotgun. Another struck Willis on the head with a bottle.

Such bravery may have been encouraged by the fact that the shotgun in question had a trigger lock installed that was plainly visible! When police examined that shotgun, they found it to be unloaded.

The suspect was arrested. No one else was injured.

Comment: This is the first and only "good" outcome involving a trigger lock I've seen. Hopefully, it will become a trend among armed robbers!

/John

11 Apr 04

Of Plans and Planning:

At the beginning of the Twentieth Century, Germany was, as she is today, surrounded by nervous neighbors. Leading German bankers and industrialists implored the Kaiser to abandon the famous "Schlieffen Plan," formulated in the Century's first decade by Alfred von Schlieffen. The Schlieffen Plan, well known throughout the German army, called for the rapid invasion and defeat of France and then a similar defeat of Russia, fighting and crushing the two in sequence, rather than at the same time. The Plan predicted that archaic Russians would be slow to react, and the French would, as always, dither indecisively. Britain would not become involved militarily until it was too late. The United States would remain neutral.

"None of this is necessary," said Max Warburg, the banker, and Hugo Stinnes, the industrialist, along with many others. "We will control Europe peacefully if you just allow us to carry on our surging economic expansion. If you avoid going to war, we will sweep over all of Europe economically, without a shot being fired." The Kaiser should have listened!

But, by 1914 the Schlieffen Plan, already a decade out of date, had literally become a religion among German war planners, and there were few heretics. When great warrior/heroes led their armies centuries earlier, they flew by the seat of their pants. Decisions were made on the spot. Opportunities were exploited instantly. But, an industrial age had brought mechanization and impossible complexities to warfare and armies. Commanders, desperately trying to keep track of a billion details, now relied on a "command structure," consisting of layer upon endless layer of "staff officers," that made up a dreary, ponderous bureaucracy, which, like all bureaucracies, excelled at only one thing: protecting and expanding itself.

In such an atmosphere, "plans" quickly ossify and subsequently take on, as noted above, religious trappings. Sometimes, plans become so essential to the politics of an administration, that, long after they are outdated, or overtaken be events, politicians and war planners alike stubbornly stick with them anyway, having no place else to go. "The Plan" becomes, in effect, a "doomsday machine:" either it works perfectly, or nothing matters afterward anyway. So it was in Germany in 1914.

With the assignation of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria in June of that year, Austria promptly invaded Serbia. Russia declared war on Austria. Germany came to Austria's aid, and the Great War was on! Almost without discussion, the Schlieffen Plan, unmodified for ten years, sprang to life. Germany invaded France via neutral Belgium, but the "fog and friction" of war soon reared its ugly head.

In an effort to make The Plan work, German divisions were put on impossible schedules of advancement. The logistic system could not keep up, and advancing German units soon outran supply lines. Essentials were continuously in short supply. Organized resistance in Belgium was scant, but nervous, frightened, and hungry German soldiers starting shooting everything that moved. Thousands of fleeing civilians were gunned down. Even today, there are many cemeteries in Belgium that date from 1914. Monuments still bear the inscription, "When the Huns came." Britain seized upon events in Belgium and used them to wage a highly effective propaganda war. So effective were the British that the United States was eventually drawn in.

Predictably, the German offensive bogged down. Britain entered the war ahead of what the Schlieffen Plan had predicted. Russians mobilized far faster than the The Plan had called for. Soon, Germany found itself in the simultaneous, two-front war she so feared. Years of indecisive, trench warfare followed. After being so badly worn down by British and French, Germans had no capacity to resist dozens of fresh American divisions, which began arriving in Europe in June of 1917. Contrary to The Plan, America did not remain neutral! By this time, the British had also introduced the tank, which brought mobility back to trench warfare. It was all too much for the Germans. Backed into a corner, they sued for peace. The Great War ended officially on 11 Nov 1918.

Germany, and most of western Europe, lay in ruins. An entire generation of German, French, and British youth had been slaughtered, ten million in all. The Schlieffen Plan, which never had any chance of success, now lay in disrepute and ruin, like most of its promoters and disciples. Twenty-one years later, a new world conflagration would push it all into the dustbin of history.

Lesson: "Man plans, and God laughs!" As Eisenhower put it, "Always have a plan, but never fall in love with it." Holms pointed out, "Tactical plans are like recipes, but you never get to know all the ingredients, nor do you get to know what the casserole will look like, nor do you get to know who is coming to dinner!" The devil is in the details, and it is the details that quickly go stale. All plans must be in a constant state of revision and must be discarded wholesale when they become obsolete. Political careers should never become intertwined with a particular "Plan." All good plans make generous allowance for "fog and friction."

By their very nature, bureaucracies wax encrusted and fossilized. They evolve into little kingdoms unto themselves, interested only in self-promotion and empire building. Bureaucrats need constant reminding of who is working for whom!

/John